2024 Spanish Mortgage Market: Trends, Forecasts, and Key Insights

Carlos García,  Friday, 12 January 2024

White Spanish new-build house

The Spanish mortgage market in 2024 is being shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including trends in the property market, interest rates, and overall economic conditions. Here is an updated overview:

Property Market Trends: The year 2023 saw the Spanish property market experiencing a price surge, despite a reduction in the number of transactions. On average, house prices rose by 7%, with significant increases observed in vibrant markets such as Madrid, Barcelona, and various coastal regions. This upward trend is expected to persist into 2024, with prices likely to climb further in these dynamic areas. In contrast, other regions may experience stabilization or minor price declines​​.

Mortgage Market Dynamics: There was a notable decrease in the number of new mortgages, dropping by over 25% compared to the previous year. This trend is partly due to the European Central Bank's decision to maintain steady interest rates, resulting in a more constrained mortgage market. However, there's growing interest from British citizens in buying Spanish properties, possibly fueled by the prospect of long-stay visas for British second-home owners​​.

Interest Rates and Euribor Forecasts: Looking at 2024, there's a sense of optimism about mortgage rates. Spain's inflation has stabilized, and the European Central Bank has kept its rates around 4%. Euribor rates, which are pivotal in setting mortgage rates, are expected to fall by the end of the year, potentially leading to more stable or slightly reduced house prices, thereby improving mortgage affordability​​.

Rental Market Changes: The rental sector has undergone significant shifts, with rent prices increasing by 9% and the availability of permanent rental properties decreasing by 12%. Influenced by the new Housing Act, this trend is likely to continue, possibly pushing more prospective buyers towards renting due to the high costs of home ownership​​.

Foreign Buyers and New Construction: The influence of foreign buyers in the property market is growing, particularly in coastal regions where they represent a significant share of total sales. The new construction market is grappling with rising costs and strict requirements for energy efficiency and sustainability, factors that are expected to drive up prices for new builds in 2024​​.

Overall Outlook: Despite a slowdown in mid-2022, the Spanish real estate market is showing resilience, buoyed by strong demand from foreign buyers and a limited supply of new homes. Even with rising interest rates, these factors continue to support property prices​​.

In conclusion, the Spanish mortgage market in 2024 can be characterized by a robust property market with escalating prices, a tightening mortgage landscape due to stable interest rates, and a significant impact from foreign buyers. The dynamics of the rental market and challenges in new construction also play crucial roles in shaping the market's trajectory.



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